Tropical waves reaching this pocket of colder waters often succumb to otherwise hostile conditions. Typically, there is a cooler pocket of water early in hurricane season from the Cabo Verde Islands to Bermuda to the northern Leeward Islands. This is important because assuming other factors are equal, the deeper and warmer the ocean water, the stronger a storm or hurricane can become. The warmer the color, the more above average the water temperatures are. Orange and red colors indicate where water temperatures are above average. The scope and magnitude of this anomalous warmth as of late July was well beyond what was seen in other warm ocean hyperactive hurricane seasons such as 2020, 20. "This anomalous warmth is why CSU's seasonal hurricane forecast has increased, despite (a) likely robust El Niño," wrote Phil Klotzbach, tropical scientist and lead of the CSU forecast team, in a tweet prior to the CSU outlook release earlier in July. One of those factors is dominating right now.Ī major contributor to the planet's hottest July on record was record warmth in the Atlantic Basin where hurricanes and tropical storms form.Īccording to AG2 meteorologists Todd Crawford, Ed Vallee and James Caron, an index that tracks the warmth of the North Atlantic Ocean known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) was at its highest level since at least 1950.
Atlantic Ocean Warmth Is Still Off The Charts “The main climate factors expected to influence the 2023 Atlantic hurricane activity are the ongoing El Niño and the warm phase of the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation, including record-warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures,” said Matthew Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center in a press release. These are the 2023 Atlantic Basin hurricane season tracks as of Aug.
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